Grace Ashiru
This year, African countries’ trade is expected to grow faster than previously forecast, according to the World Trade Organization (WTO). In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics report, released Tuesday, October 7, the WTO projects African merchandise exports to rise by 5.3%, and imports to surge by 11.8% this year.
These projections represent a sharp upward revision from the April forecast, which had predicted import growth of 6.5% and export growth of just 0.6%. The earlier outlook was clouded by global trade tensions following new U.S. tariff hikes under President Donald Trump, which raised concerns over further trade fragmentation. The WTO initially expected those measures to weigh on trade, particularly exports from developing to advanced economies. But stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 prompted the organization to lift its forecasts across all regions, including Africa.
Africa’s projected 11.8% growth in imports is the highest among all regions globally. This is particularly noteworthy given the challenges the continent has faced in recent years, including political instability, the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, and fluctuating commodity prices. The import growth is seen as a sign of resilience, with demand for a wide range of goods including electronics, machinery, and consumer products driven by economic recovery and industrial expansion. According to the WTO, Africa is expected to outpace Asia (+5.7%) and South America (+8.8%) in this regard.
By contrast, the continent continues to lag in services trade. The WTO expects services exports to rise just 1.3% in 2025, down from 4.9% in 2024, before recovering to 2.1% in 2026. This compares with a global average of +4.6% in 2025 and +4.4% in 2026, driven by the booming digital services sector and AI-related trade. African countries such as Kenya, Nigeria, and Egypt, which are investing heavily in service digitalization, are expected to benefit the most, particularly in telecommunications, IT, and financial services.
Globally, merchandise trade is projected to expand 2.4% in 2025, up from April’s estimate of -0.2%, before slowing to 0.5% in 2026. The WTO attributes the temporary rebound to front-loaded imports in North America ahead of higher tariffs, stronger macroeconomic conditions, and the rising demand for AI-related goods. However, rising protectionism and sluggish global growth are expected to limit the recovery from 2026 onward.
For 2026, the WTO sees Africa’s exports stagnating and imports slowing to 5.4%. Even at that pace, African import growth would still outpace the global average of 0.5%. These projections underline both the opportunity and the challenges facing the continent in the coming years. Despite the overall slowdown expected in global trade post-2025, Africa’s import growth remains a sign of its economic vitality and integration into global supply chains.
